Financial Collapse RSS

Nov 17, 2008

Japan's recession

Japan is not so different after all. After contracting 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, the world's second biggest economy has now joined the eurozone in keiki koutai , or economic recession. That brings the country's longest post-war expansion to a juddering halt. Consumers of all stripes are on strike. Household consumption rose 0.3 per cent on the quarter, but perhaps due only to boosts from TV sales during the Olympics and other one-offs. Capital investment fell 1.7 per cent, the third decline in a row, while overseas buyers bought fewer Japanese goods.

Better news lies outside the GDP numbers. Unemployment, at 4.1 per cent on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development projections, is comfortably below that of the eurozone and the US. But since corporate profits are diving and bankruptcies soaring, unemployment will inevitably rise, increasing the temptation to save rather than spend. Japan's savers, already some of the world's thriftiest, are squirreling away ever more money: term deposits have risen every month this year.

Unlocking that cash is the tricky part. As elsewhere, monetary and fiscal stimuli are the required tonic. Here Japan really can lay claim to being different. Policy lending rates of 0.3 per cent leave little room for monetary manoeuvre - although printing money is an option. Fiscal stimuli require two things Japan lacks: money and good ideas. It is the most indebted rich country and already committed to raising more than $250bn of fresh debt this year.

As for viable proposals, a storm of protest forced the government to partially backtrack on its $21bn handout plans. Thank goodness: chances are most of the rebates would have been stuffed in banks rather than spent. The pity is that, with consumers so fearful and the broad measure of deflation used in GDP calculations running at 1.6 per cent, protracted recession is just as likely in Japan as anywhere else.




Source : FinancialTimes
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